Go for Ignition: Imagining NASA’s Ambitious Future

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Boy it must feel good to be NASA right now. There is, after all, a minor thing called the Artemis II mission, the first human exploration mission to return to lunar space since 1972, happening as we speak. That’s, you know, kind of a big deal.

But there’s also “Ignition”, that major list of new initiatives they recently announced that are, theoretically, going to completely change the game in terms of what NASA is working on going forward and what space exploration in general is going to be in the coming decades. That assumes these new initiatives actually wind up all happening, which I think is kind of a big “if” at the moment, but let’s take some time to dive into what was announced and what it will all mean if it does actually all come to fruition. 

In other words, let’s take a jump forward into the future that NASA just stated they’re going to try and make happen. It’s a good one for us space nerds, after all!

Luna-cy

In honor of Artemis II which is, at its heart, part of the endeavor to get humans back on the surface of the Moon, let’s start with NASA’s new, surprisingly detailed Moonbase plans. First and foremost: Gateway is out.

Not gonna lie, I’m kind of bummed about this one. Gateway, an imagined international collaboration to build a small space station in lunar orbit, was an undeniably cool idea. It was supposed to provide an orbital base to support future Artemis landings and the eventual building of a Moon base, but had been on thin ice for a while. Building a space station is no minor matter, after all, especially if you also want to build a Moonbase.

It should be noted that all the language around Gateway in last week’s announcements specify that it’s not “cancelled” it’s “paused,” and could be resurrected later. Feels unlikely, given the incredible amount of effort that now needs to be focused elsewhere, but that’s the official word.

So about that Moonbase. NASA has outlined three phases of construction. Phase One isn’t actually about building a base so much as preparing to build a base. The focus of this phase is to get good at getting a lot of stuff to the Moon with regular frequency via commercially provided spacecraft and landers. Theoretically this phase has already started and will run through 2028. 

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All told this phase is expected to involve up to 21 uncrewed landings of various landers and rovers, as well as a new class of objects called “hoppers”, a type of drone that can move up to 50km (31 miles) at a go. All of this will also be testing new tech that is designed to be able to withstand the extremes of the lunar environment, including the long lunar night.

Phase Two, which is scheduled to start in 2029, is when we’ll actually start putting the beginnings of a base down. Mostly this will involve landing larger and larger rovers and setting up some basic infrastructure like power sources and communications towers.

Then we get to Phase Three, which is schedule to run from 2032-2036. This is when we actually build and run a Moonbase, placing 150 metric tons of material on the surface over 28 landings, creating an “industrial neighborhood” for manufacturing necessary materials using resources from the Moon itself and establishing habitats for long-term living and working.

Basically the idea is to have our own little functional town on the Moon in ten years. Given that we haven’t put a person on it since 1972 and have had only marginal success in landing commercial spacecraft on the lunar surface, calling it “ambitious” feels like an undersell.

Familiar Stomping Grounds

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Even as NASA is apparently prepared to start very much obsessing over the Moon, it’s not planning to give up its presence in low Earth orbit (LEO). In fact maintaining a constant presence in LEO is considered a major priority, and NASA has a new possible idea for how to keep it up. 

The idea outlined last week involves creating a NASA-built Core Module for a new space station and sending it to space to temporarily become a part of the aging International Space Station (ISS). This Core Module would provide the basic needs of a new station such as power, life support, and propulsion, and while attached to ISS it could have multiple commercially-built modules attached to it to provide habitat and research space. Then, when it’s ready, it can detach from ISS and become its own new station that could potentially keep growing as needed.

Using ISS as the platform from which to build a new station has several potential benefits. It’s a fully functional outpost that can serve as a base for spacewalks and has several highly capable robotic arms to help with assembling and outfitting a new potential station. It’s also a place where new modules could be safely tested for human habitability while having a safe haven only a closed airlock door away in case something goes wrong. What’s more the growing new station could become a home for any key ISS assets that NASA and its partners decide they want to save when the time comes to deorbit the old station. 

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That’s a lot of potential benefits! So of course there’s a catch. The timeline NASA provided for how this process could play out has the final selection of the Core Module design happening by the end of 2031. That’s the final design, not the final building, which means the thing would still need to be built, tested, and launched. And that all needs to happen before any commercial modules (which, theoretically, could be being built alongside the Core Module) can head to space.

As I’ve already said, ISS is old. The old bird is creaky. It’s currently officially scheduled for deorbit in late 2030. Congress has recently tried to put through legislation that would extend this to 2032, but that hasn’t made it all the way through the legislation process yet. Also it would require buy-in from NASA’s international partners, seeing as the ISS is not actually NASA’s personal property (I’ve seen no response from Roscosmos, the other major operator of ISS, to this proposal). And that’s just until 2032. This new idea seems like it will take longer to fully implement than that.

And I’ll say it again: ISS IS OLD. It doesn’t matter how long anybody on Earth decides they’re willing to let the old bird fly if a key seal breaks or a micrometeorite impact takes out an important fuel system, or any of a number of other mission critical events occur, then ISS will be rendered uninhabitable. I love this thing, but it simply cannot last forever. But who knows, maybe it can last long enough.

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Higher, Further, Faster

These new ambitions don’t stop at Earth or lunar orbit, either. One of the more intriguing (to me, anyway) things announced last week was the first interplanetary mission to utilize nuclear-powered engines. If you’re scratching your head and wondering what the heck missions like the Voyagers or Curiosity and Perseverance are if not nuclear-powered missions, those do use nuclear power, but they used regular old liquid propellant engines. 

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Space Reactor-1 Freedom (I feel like they maybe could have workshopped that name just a little more, but that’s neither here nor there) will use fission power to get to where it’s going. And that’s Mars, at least to start with. SR-1 Freedom is being planned to be ready for the 2028 Mars launch window. It will take about a year to get to the Red Planet, where it’s going to deploy a payload called Skyfall, and this I’m very excited about!

Skyfall will be a payload of Ingenuity-class Martian helicopters, three of them to be precise! The Skyfall helicopters will scout out their chosen landing region for future human exploration, carrying cameras and ground-penetrating radar as well as utilizing water-ice-mapping capabilities. But the thing that’s making me misty is that my much-beloved and dearly-missed Ingenuity is going to have descendants! Its spiritual children will fly through the same skies it pioneered! I’m not crying you’re crying!

The Catch

Now all of this is obviously ambitious. It makes a lot of assumptions. It assumes ISS will remain stable for several more years. It assumes we’ll be able to figure out nuclear propulsion, complete a design, and build SR-1 Freedom (not to mention the whole Skyfall payload) in less than three years, which is an insane timeline. It assumes everything is going to go well with Artemis II and all future Project Artemis missions. It’s assuming NASA can expand its workforce to supply skillsets in which it is currently lacking and that it can adequately inspire the next generation of scientists and engineers to maintain staffing levels in the coming decades.

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And it assumes a level of funding that just isn’t there right now. NASA openly acknowledges that the $250 million a year they can currently put towards their low Earth orbit activities will not cut it for their new proposed model. Their ideas for Moonbase development will cost $10 billion per phase while also being heavily dependent on commercial entities. And the money needed to rapidly develop, build, and launch SR-1 Freedom isn’t even a line item in the current NASA budget.

All of that needs to be hurdled before any of these dreams can become realities. That being said, NASA hasn’t shown a drive like this since the exploration heyday of the 1960s into the early 1970s. And I will be the absolute last person to underestimate a freshly determined NASA. This space agency has already shown that it can turn miracles into actualities.

I’m rooting for you NASA. It won’t be an easy road, but if it can be done the future of space exploration will be bright, ambitious, and glorious.